By DORON TAMIR
Israel is facing new strategic challenges as the result of international and regional geo-political developments, and events on the home front. The Israeli government should take note of these paradigm shifts and act systemically to counter them.
Globally, the Russian – Ukrainian war is increasingly a source of concern, together with challenges from China that are pulling the United States away from the Middle East, thereby negatively affecting Israel’s regional status.
With Russia escalating the war further, stability on the European continent is far from assured. The recent NATO-run multi-national air exercise is a late attempt by the West to boost deterrence against Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Disturbingly, the question of how far Putin is willing to go when pushed into a corner remains unanswered. These events have created shock waves for the global system and have also directly affected Israel’s hi-tech sector due to disruptions in supply chains.
The world’s banks and investment firms are anxiously looking at the conflict’s after-effects, coming so soon after the coronavirus pandemic.
Regionally, in the Middle East, paradigm shifts are underway: Saudi Arabia is talking to Iran, as is Egypt, and Syria’s President Bashar Assad, a mass murderer, has suddenly become a regional darling. Meanwhile, Israel is being increasingly endangered by the arsenal and actions of the Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.
As the U.S. is focused on new tensions in the South China Sea and Russia, its weakness in the Middle East is the elephant in the room. The Biden administration’s successive failures in engaging with Arab allies like Saudi Arabia and Egypt plays directly into the hands of the Iranian led axis.
In the Middle East, Israel’s traditional Arab partners – Egypt and Jordan – continue to maintain good cooperation with it, but Jordan’s ruler, King Abdullah II, is facing an increasingly difficult domestic position due to the Israeli – Palestinian conflict and sensitivities over Jerusalem.
Israel needs to be more attentive to Abdullah’s predicaments, since Jordan forms a crucial aspect of regional stability. This means ensuring the status quo remains unchallenged in the Temple Mount, for example, and avoiding irresponsible moves in this sector.
Egypt’s cooperation with Israel, despite the tragic terrorist attack launched by a rogue Egyptian border guard, remains a major strategic asset for both countries and a pillar of stability.
On the other hand, the fact that Saudi Arabia has established new ties with Iran is deeply troubling and is reflection America’s regional weakness.
Meanwhile, domestically, Israel has experienced unprecedented domestic instability and crisis over the government’s legal reform initiative. This has frightened American, European, and other investment firms.
Israel’s hi-tech sector, the main engine of the national economy, is robust, but it would be wrong to pretend that it has not suffered a major blow due to the domestic instability. Investment in Israeli hi-tech is at a five-year low.
In Europe, Israel’s situation is complex, with some countries, particularly in the center and east of the continent, supporting Israel, while others are growing increasingly critical of the Jewish state. The European Union in general is quite hostile to Israel, although Germany, the most powerful state in the EU, remains politically supportive, despite the erosion in Israel’s image there.
When taken together, a strategic deterioration is the inevitable conclusion.
To counteract these trends, the first and most important action that Israel should take is to strengthen its alliance with the United States. While ongoing cooperation in the military and intelligence spheres remain strong, political-diplomatic tensions between Washington and Jerusalem are eroding Israel’s overall strategic situation.
Bilateral defense ties can, over time, be affected by bad winds blowing from the relationship between the governments, and this is a risk that Israel should not take.
To be sure, the U.S. also gains from its military alliance with Israel, gleaning intelligence information that is supremely valuable for American security.
But the extraordinary alliance must be based not just on shared interests; it must also be based on shared values.
Be it access to world-leading F-35 jets, or to American support in the United Nations Security Council, the idea that Israel can get by without its alliance with America is simply detached from reality, despite the belief in this concept in some sections of the extreme Israeli Right.
Israel must take steps to stabilize its own political system and economy. It needs to resurrect the image of a strong, stable Israel, which knows what it wants and has clear strategic goals. To be seen again as a country with a prosperous hi-tech sector that is worthwhile allying with Israel must regain its stability.
Moreover, Israel should pursue the goal of formalizing ties with Saudi Arabia, strengthening ties with Abraham Accord states, and decreasing tensions with Jordan.
Relations with these states are highly fragile and are subject to almost immediate changes each time significant developments occur in the Palestinian arena.
The Palestinian issue cannot, for its part, remain sidelined forever. Time is not on Israel’s side on this matter. Sooner or later, Israel will have to make strategic, fateful decisions on how it proceeds vis-à-vis the Palestinians.
The era of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is ending, and Israel must see what kind of leadership will take his place in Ramallah.
To be clear, there is no silver bullet solution to the Israeli – Palestinian conflict, particularly with Hamas ruling Gaza. But there are steps available to Israel and the PA that can neutralize and decrease much of the current tensions.
The Israeli government has much work at hand to reverse the current trend, and to begin improving Israel’s strategic situation.
Brigadier General Doron Tamir General Doron Tamir had a distinguished military career spanning over 2 decades in the Intelligence Corps and Special forces - as the Chief Intelligence Officer in the Israeli military, where he commanded numerous military units in all aspects of the intelligence field, from signal, visual, and human intelligence, through technology and cyber, to combat and special operations. Read full bio here.
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